Lending drops 90 per cent

Some strange stats are coming out at the moment.  Lending has dropped from £6.9bn to £690m for the month of Jan if you compare last years with this years.

I am a great advocate of the phrase the figures never lie.  What we can see that if the number of transactions has not fallen by 90% (which it has not) then some big cash buyers are back in the game! 

Obviously cash buyers do not need to borrow to buy.  So they do not get measured by such a stat of lending for the month.

Now I can tell you two things about big cash buyers:

  1. they are rich
  2. they are smart (because they are rich!)

It does not take a genius to work that one out. 

It does not take genius to work out why these cash buyers are back.  It is because the prices are good but more importantly the yields are good.

Just a reminder of what yield is:

Annual rent divided by purchase price of the property. 

These two stats are known figures when you buy a property.  The rent is known and the purchase price is known.  There is no speculation regarding capital growth, future rental growth, new train station, new schools blah blah BLAH!

Just hard facts.  How much rent compared to how much the property is going to cost you.  You never need to know anything other than these figures.

New Motorway being built - not bothered

New train station - who cares

New shopping centre - so what

Sorry to be blunt but there is no need to know all this.  Why?  Because the price already factors in people's opinions about what these new things are actually worth.  The rent will attract slightly more rent and the property will attract slightly more in price with the anticipation of the new thing like a train station being built.

However by the time it arrives you could be in the middle of a slump like some amateur investors are facing right now.  I am sure they want to punch that very salesman who gave them all that schpiel when they paid their reservation fee 24 months ago!

Just remember YIELD.  Nothing else. 

If a property is undesirable it will be reflected by its yield NOT its proximity to some flash high tec centre with Cost-a-lot Coffee and MegaBucks Coffee.  Common sense ALWAYS prevails.

Think like an investor not like a tenant when deciding where to invest.  Let the tenant think like a tenant.

Ajay

PS We have had 2 great deals (one of them no money down) just come in whilst I have been writing this email so contact my office at enquiries@ahuja.co.uk


Posted on: 2nd Mar 2009






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