NOT LIKELY

I was checking the voting on how many times each of the 9 members voted for a rise in the last 12 months.   There are 9 members voting 12 times a year so that is 108 votes.

So guess how many votes were for an increase.

7

So out of 108 votes there were 7 votes for an increase.

And where did these votes come from? One member Andrew Sentance.  He is well on his own on this one.  I reckon he is trying to make a name for himself. I know all about that!

So out of the 9 members 8 of them consistently refused to put up rates.  So is this lone guy Andrew cleverer than the other 8 and can he see something the others can’t? If I were a betting man I would say Andrew is wrong.

Purely on the analysis of the numbers and assuming we do not have idiots within the MPC then you would have to say Andrew has to be wrong.  The only one I would be worried about is the way Mervyn votes. 

If Mervyn votes for a rise then the rest of the committee will follow.  I think Mervyn gets to meet with the big wigs and they tell him how to vote.  Mervyns job is to tell the MPC how to vote and the government get their way.  Call me cynical but I doubt that the Bank of England is truly independent don’t you think?

The minutes are released on 26^th Jan and the news will be all over it like a rash.  Will the voting be the usual 8-1 or will it be 5-4? How has Mervyn voted?

My prediction is.........

8-1

What’s yours?

Ajay

Posted on: 25th Jan 2011